The Distribution and Consequences of Disaster Property Losses: Evidence from Tax Returns of Wildfire Victims

Date: Friday, Jan. 23
Time: 3:30 pm
Location: Arts 211

About this event

Speaker: Dr. Patrick Baylis, Vancouver School of Economics, University of British Columbia (UBC)

We merge property-level damage data for over 100 U.S. wildfires with individual tax and Census data to understand (i) the demographics of the wildfire-exposed population and (ii) the effects of wildfires on earnings and migration for affected individuals and communities.

The granular data illuminate disparities in hazard (likelihood of a wildfire) and structure vulnerability (likelihood of destruction conditional on a fire). On average, occupants of exposed homes are wealthier and more likely to be white. Individuals with lower pre-fire incomes are more likely to have their homes destroyed, consistent with other evidence of a “structure vulnerability gap”.

Wildfires reduce earnings for occupants of destroyed homes for three years after the event, with earnings losses peaking at 10% in year 1. Ten percent of occupants of destroyed homes are still filing taxes from a different county four years after the event.

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